America First, Uncertainty Second
How Trump’s economic overhaul is playing out in real time. Plus, how local governments are experimenting with AI
We’re less than two months into Trump 2.0, but the administration is already making drastic moves to reshape the U.S. economy under its America First philosophy. Sweeping tariffs are going into effect (well, maybe—see below), immigration policies are tightening, and government spending is facing steep cuts. Economists warn of negative consequences, while businesses and markets struggle to keep up with the shifting landscape.
What’s especially interesting is Trump’s own acknowledgment that some economic pain will come with this transition. That’s a rare moment of candor, but it also highlights just how unpredictable this moment is. Forecasts are shifting by the day, and no one really knows what the long-term impact will be.
So, this is the first in what will be a regular check-in on the new administration’s policies—not just what’s being said, but what’s actually happening. Let’s look at where things stand.
Chaos Reigns: Uncertainty is the Defining Feature of Trump’s Economy
The one certainty in Trump’s economic approach? Uncertainty itself. Markets, businesses, and even government agencies are scrambling to adjust to the constant back-and-forth on trade policy, tariffs, and regulations, writes political economist Dan Drezner.
In his March 6 Substack, Drezner highlights how Trump’s erratic tariff decisions—imposing, delaying, then modifying them—have thrown industries and investors into turmoil. The stock market has been on a rollercoaster, reacting to every new policy twist.
According to the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, uncertainty is now at a 21st-century high, surpassing levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and 9/11. Here’s the chart.
Businesses are hesitant to make long-term investments, and industries that rely on stable supply chains—like manufacturing and automotive—are particularly rattled, Drezner writes.
As one administration insider put it, “It’s the greatest show on Earth. We’ll put tariffs on tonight, but tomorrow we’ll tell you we may negotiate and take them off. But stay tuned, because you never know what tomorrow’s gonna bring.”
Well OK then.
Some of the uncertainty revolves around DOGE’s pronouncements. Here’s how one wag put it on Bluesky.
I’m on the record as supporting DOGE’s efforts to dramatically cut waste, fraud and ineffective federal spending—we’ve got a $36 trillion national debt FFS—but Elon and Co. really could us a little comms coaching to help boost their credibility. I’m available. Just sayin’.
Recession Watch: Is Trump’s Economic Overhaul Tanking Growth?
Economist Noah Smith warned March 6 that Trump’s aggressive economic nationalism—especially his sweeping tariffs—may be dragging America into a recession. The Atlanta Fed now projects a 2.8% decline in GDP for the first quarter, a sharp reversal from the strong growth seen in late 2024.
The biggest culprit? Tariffs. Manufacturing and small businesses, which rely heavily on imports, are already feeling the squeeze from rising costs. Consumer prices are climbing, private investment is stalling, and exports are weakening as key trade partners prepare to retaliate. The S&P 500 is down 6% and the NASDAQ has dropped 8%.
But what makes this moment unique isn’t just economic turbulence—it’s Trump’s ideological commitment to economic self-reliance. Smith argues that short-term pain is a feature, not a bug, as Trump seeks to make the U.S. less dependent on foreign economies.
Smith calls this “American juche,” comparing it to North Korea’s economic isolation, Maoist China, and other regimes that prioritized self-sufficiency over prosperity. Whether this experiment succeeds or collapses, one thing is certain: American businesses and consumers will feel the impact.
About that Short-Term Pain: Trump Acknowledges Economic Turbulence
Even Trump himself isn’t ruling out a recession, reports the Wall Street Journal in a March 9 article. In a recent interview, he described the economic upheaval as a “period of transition”, arguing that temporary turbulence is necessary for long-term prosperity.
Despite his confidence, markets are showing signs of strain. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced the idea that the country is entering an economic “detox” period, suggesting that years of government spending and market intervention have made the economy too dependent on federal support.
Meanwhile, the administration’s erratic tariff policy is fueling uncertainty. Just last week, Trump suddenly paused 25% tariffs on auto imports from Mexico and Canada—less than 48 hours after they took effect. On Tuesday morning, as I wrap up this TL;dr, Trump says the United States will increase tariff’s on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. Investors and businesses are struggling to keep up.
Despite the turmoil, Trump is doubling down. He dismissed concerns over stock declines, arguing that his focus is on “building a strong country” rather than short-term market fluctuations. Whether this strategy will pay off—or lead to a full-blown recession—remains an open question.
Stay Tuned: The Chaos Continues
We’ll keep checking in on the real-world impacts of Trump’s economic policies—not just the headlines, but how they’re translating into governance. Right now, the administration is gambling on long-term economic strength at the cost of short-term pain, but it remains to be seen how deep that pain will go—or how long Americans will tolerate it.
While the federal government navigates upheaval, local governments are turning to AI to fill gaps where manpower falls short.
Dallas Turns to AI to Enhance Park Safety
Recognizing that no city can hire enough staff to provide constant security in parks and on trails, Dallas is turning to AI-driven technology to improve safety. The city will deploy drones, cameras, and AI-powered monitoring systems to detect criminal activity, identify hazards like flooding, and assist law enforcement, according to a Fox 4 report.
Dallas Parks Director John Jenkins emphasized that AI is not replacing personnel but augmenting their efforts to make parks safer and more welcoming. While park rangers, marshals, and police remain key to enforcement, AI allows the city to monitor more areas in real-time and respond more efficiently.
At the same time, city leaders are addressing other park-related challenges, including regulating e-bikes on trails and managing homeless encampments. With AI playing a growing role, Dallas is exploring how technology can enhance public spaces while maintaining a human-centered approach to safety.
Lakeway Adopts AI Policy to Boost Efficiency and Transparency
The Lakeway, Texas, City Council has approved a new AI policy that allows city staff to use artificial intelligence tools to supplement their work while ensuring transparency, security, and ethical use.
City officials made it clear that AI isn’t replacing employees—it’s being used to increase efficiency in government operations. Under the policy, staff can use AI for research, drafting documents, and generating ideas, but all AI-assisted work must be reviewed by humans before being released. To maintain transparency, employees must disclose when AI is used and properly save documents to comply with open records laws.
Security remains a key concern. Staff are prohibited from inputting confidential information into AI tools to prevent data leaks, and only IT-approved software can be used. Communications Director Jarrod Wise said the city’s internal AI committee will monitor the technology’s use, and the policy will be reviewed in six months to assess its effectiveness.
Onward and Upward
After all the uncertainty, economic upheaval, and AI-driven change, let’s end this week’s check-in with something undeniably human.
Dr. Michael Zollicoffer, a beloved family practitioner in Baltimore, has spent years caring for his community. Now, after being diagnosed with two cancers, his patients are stepping up to care for him.
📺 Watch Steve Hartman’s report on CBS Sunday Morning for a reminder that human connection remains our greatest source of resilience.
Until next time—stay engaged, stay informed, and keep an eye on how today’s policies shape tomorrow’s governance.