Trust in Crisis: What Emergencies, Optimism, and AI Bots Teach Us
Why transparency, hopeful messaging, and discernment matter in public sector communication
This week’s TL;dr from Good Government Files hits on three themes particularly relevant to those of us navigating the public sector: emergency governance, optimism as an ethical obligation, and the influence of AI bots on public opinion. At first glance, these might seem like distinct issues, but they share a common thread — how perception, power, and technology shape our work and the public’s trust.
As a former government communicator, I know how important it is to build public trust by being transparent during crises, so the abuse of emergency declarations is hugely disturbing to me. At the same time, projecting optimism is more than just good PR — it’s essential for inspiring action and fostering a positive outlook in our communities. And with AI bots increasingly skewing public sentiment online, it’s critical to discern genuine feedback from manufactured narratives as we work to stay connected to the people we serve. Let’s jump into it.
The ‘Emergency’ Emergency
This essay from National Review discusses the persistent issue of prolonged national emergency declarations in the United States. It explores how emergency powers, initially designed for short-term crises, have been stretched out, sometimes for decades. The author argues Congress must reclaim its authority by restricting the executive branch’s emergency powers to prevent their abuse. Here are three takeaways:
Emergency Powers Overreach: Emergency powers, originally meant for short-term crises, have become an overused tool. This leads to a blurry definition of what qualifies as an emergency. “There are currently 43 active national-emergency declarations,” Jack Butler writes. “One of them dates back to the Carter administration. Others will turn 30 by the end of this year or over the next few. An extended emergency is something of a contradiction.”
The Risk to Constitutional Governance: The overuse of emergency powers poses a risk to the U.S. constitutional order, as it allows presidents to bypass Congress and exercise unchecked authority. For example, President Biden’s attempt to cancel student debt under an emergency provision was deemed unconstitutional. If Congress wants to cancel student debt, it should simply pass legislation doing so.
Restoring Congressional Oversight: “As with many problems in our politics, Congress is both the cause and the solution ... It wrote the laws that have empowered the president and the bureaucracy ... and typically acquiesces to sustained emergencies by declining to act to end them,” Butler writes. Efforts like the proposed Article One Act aim to address this by limiting presidential emergency declarations to 30 days and requiring congressional approval for extensions. This seeks to balance responsiveness to real crises while preventing the misuse of power and restoring the constitutional role of Congress.
Why You Have an Obligation to Be Optimistic
Ian Leslie, writing in The Ruffian on Substack, argues optimism is not only beneficial for personal well-being but also has ethical implications. While pessimism may be intellectually fashionable, optimism fosters resilience, creativity, and problem-solving. His piece advocates for a balanced, realistic optimism that acknowledges challenges while fostering hope and action. Here are my takeaways:
Optimism Enhances Well-being and Resilience: Optimism improves mental and physical health, leading to better coping mechanisms and problem-solving abilities. “If optimism were a pill, we would take it,” Leslie writes. “Optimism is related to fewer symptoms of depression and higher levels of wellbeing. Optimists are better at coping with adverse events, and deal with negative information more calmly.”
Emotions Spread, and Optimism Is Contagious: Emotional states are contagious, especially among young people, meaning that optimism can spread and benefit others. Research shows that mental states, like depression, can influence peers, underscoring the importance of projecting positive emotions. “This is a pill we can give to others — and by doing so, make it more likely they pass it on. Optimism is contagious. This is because it is less of an intellectual position than a disposition: an attitude or mood.”
Optimism Fuels Action, Pessimism Paralyzes It: Optimism is crucial for driving positive change, even in serious issues like climate change. People are more likely to act and innovate if they believe in the possibility of a positive outcome. “Pessimism, by contrast, induces ennui,” Leslie writes. “It tends to paralyse rather than galvanise constructive action.” To which I say, “Onward and …” oops, too soon.
Bots Devalue Wisdom of the Crowd
This Axios article explores how the increasing use of bots on social media is distorting public opinion by amplifying outlier voices and manipulating virality algorithms. The prevalence of bots, combined with the rise of generative AI, makes it harder for the public to discern genuine engagement from artificial amplification. The takeaways:
Bots Manipulate Social Media Algorithms: Bots can create the illusion of widespread support for fringe opinions by rigging algorithms to promote certain content, making it appear organically viral. This not only misleads the public but can also pressure organizations to alter policies. This point drives home the mantra of one of my former mayors: “We don’t govern by social media.”
Volume Doesn’t Always Equal Depth: Social media volume driven by bots creates a false sense of urgency around issues, making them appear more important than they are. This can skew responses to public opinion. “When bots are engaged, they’re basically making a Super Bowl-like event out of things that are not.”
Generative AI Increases Bot Activity: As access to AI tools grows, the use of bots is expected to rise, making it even harder to track genuine virality. This creates a challenge for organizations trying to gauge authentic public sentiment. To me, this is one more great reason to have statistically valid surveys in your comms toolkit.
In Other’s Words
More on optimism, from the late psychologist and Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman.
Optimistic individuals play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference; they are the inventors, the entrepreneurs, the political and military leaders — not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks. They are talented and they have been lucky, almost certainly luckier than they acknowledge ... the people who have the greatest influence on the lives of others are likely to be optimistic and overconfident, and to take more risks than they realize.
The late theoretical physicist and Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman on thinking for yourself.
Be a free thinker. Don’t accept everything you hear as truth. Be critical and evaluate what you believe in.
Former President George W. Bush on the rise of populism and — candidly — his role in it by approving the bailout of the financial institutions responsible for the build-up and subsequent collapse of the housing bubble in 2007 and 2008.
I listened to (Hank) Paulson and (Ben) Bernanke and spent your money to bail out the guys who created the instruments in the first place, which is an absolute political disaster. You wonder why populism is on the rise. It starts with taking taxpayers’ money and giving it to the powerful. It really irritated a lot of Americans, and they haven’t gotten over it yet. That’s just part of it; there’s a lot of other reasons why. But we’ve had candidates say, ‘You’re mad, I’m going to make you madder.’ As opposed to, ‘You’re mad, I have some solutions to make you less mad.’ We’re kind of in the madder stage, where people are exploiting the anger as opposed to dealing with it like leaders should.
Credit: David Rubenstein’s book The Highest Calling: Conversations on the American Presidency
Onward and Upward.