AI Transformation: Predictions for 2030 and Practical Steps Today
Experts look ahead to 2030 while cities focus on building trust and governance right now
Welcome to the monthly AI-focused edition of TL;dr, where we explore all things artificial intelligence and how local governments are navigating its current adoption.
Experts predict that by 2030, AI will profoundly reshape industries; but local governments are taking a cautious approach, starting with low-risk applications like procurement and training staff through ambassador programs. At the same time, officials stress the need for careful governance to ensure AI’s potential is realized responsibly. In this issue, we examine what’s coming for AI and how today’s strategies are laying the groundwork for local governments. Let’s dive in and explore how local governments are programming their path toward an AI-infused, uncertain future.
It's the Year 2030. What will AI look like?
The Wall Street Journal asked various experts about AI’s trajectory by 2030. While some believe AI will drive significant transformation, others are skeptical about the timeline for achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI). The article touches on potential advancements, challenges like job displacement, and the societal risks posed by AI-generated media. Here are three takeaways:
Gradual but Profound Changes: Ethan Mollick, a professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania, emphasizes that while AI will continue to advance rapidly, its effects on businesses and society will unfold more slowly than the technology itself. “As scientist and futurist Roy Amara famously observed, ‘We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run,’” Mollick explains. By 2030, AI’s potential will be far greater than many predicted, but many organizations will still be catching up with its full integration.
A Historic Business Transformation: Stanford professor Erik Brynjolfsson writes his prediction as if it’s already 2030 and doesn’t mince words. “AI advances fueled the most profound business transformation in history.” Rather than causing mass unemployment, he writes, AI spurred innovation, with companies that embraced it seeing unprecedented productivity gains. This transformation isn’t about replacing jobs wholesale but rather about evolving tasks, with new roles emerging and businesses that adapted thriving in the AI-driven economy.
Risks to Societal Trust: Valerie Wirtschafter, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, warns of the dangers posed by AI-generated content by 2030. She writes that “AI-generated media is likely to become only more realistic and pervasive,” creating an environment where the line between fact and fiction blurs. Without widespread education about the risks, she believes that trust in a shared reality may erode, potentially undermining the foundations of democracy and public trust.
Strategies for spreading AI throughout local government
Bloomberg Cities discusses how cities around the world, from Bogotá to Boise, are integrating AI into their operations. Leaders are focusing on familiarizing their employees with AI, streamlining critical functions like procurement, and setting up networks within and across city departments. These strategies include designating AI “ambassadors” to guide the adoption process, creating cross-sectoral partnerships to upskill staff, and fostering collaboration with academic and tech partners to ensure AI implementation leads to real-world benefits for residents. Here are three key takeaways:
AI is Transforming Essential Functions: Many cities are using AI to improve core government tasks, particularly procurement. In Boston, for example, Chief Information Officer Santiago Garces is developing an AI-powered chatbot to streamline purchasing, helping civil servants like firefighters spend less time on administrative tasks and more on their core duties. “You want your firefighters not to be focused on buying gear, but on fighting fires,” Garces said.
Ambassador Programs Drive Adoption: A smart strategy for spreading AI across local government is bottom-up leadership through designated “AI ambassadors.” Boise’s Chief Innovation Officer, Kyle Patterson, launched an ambassador program that trains volunteers in each department to promote AI use. He notes “AI is a technology for which top-down adoption just isn’t going to be effective,” and since the program’s rollout, AI use by city employees has increased tenfold. These ambassadors help spread enthusiasm and knowledge, accelerating AI integration within their teams. (GGF explored a similar approach in January.)
Cross-Sector Partnerships Foster Expertise: Collaboration with external partners, including tech companies and academic institutions, has proven vital for upskilling city staff in AI. In Buenos Aires, former undersecretary Melisa Breda led efforts to partner with tech companies while rolling out the city’s chatbot service, ensuring employees gained hands-on experience with AI. Similarly, Denver’s upcoming AI summit will focus on co-creating solutions with the tech industry to address challenges like affordability, emphasizing the importance of building partnerships to drive successful AI implementation.
Don't rush into AI experiments too quickly, experts say
The article discusses the balance state and local governments must strike between quickly adopting AI technology and ensuring responsible governance. Panelists from a recent Route Fifty Innovation Spotlight event emphasized the importance of starting with low-risk AI projects to build trust and transparency while governments navigate concerns around ethics, privacy, and bias. The approach of slow and careful experimentation is seen as essential to maintaining public trust and avoiding potential pitfalls in AI implementation. Here are three takeaways:
Balancing Innovation with Good Governance: State and local governments are encouraged to approach AI adoption with caution. Nishant Shah, Maryland’s senior advisor for responsible AI, highlights the tension between rapid adoption and the need for thorough governance, noting that while AI can improve services quickly, it’s crucial to “leverage tools to get these things in the hands of residents” responsibly. Governments are taking time to develop policies and frameworks to ensure AI use is effective and ethical.
Low-Risk Use Cases Build Trust: Introducing AI in low-risk environments is seen as a key strategy to build confidence among employees and residents. Santiago Garces, Boston’s Chief Information Officer, shared how the city is using AI to summarize 16 years of city council meetings, a task that still requires human oversight. These “practice arenas,” as Shah calls them, allow governments to experiment with AI’s capabilities without risking major public fallout, thus building trust over time.
Patience and Diligence Over Speed: While private industry may adopt AI more quickly, governments are held to a higher standard, especially when handling public data. Katy Ruckle, Washington’s chief privacy officer, emphasized that governments need to be patient and careful when deploying AI tools. “A little patience is expected of government,” she said, as states like Washington use risk and impact assessments to ensure AI is implemented thoughtfully and securely.
In Other’s Words
Writer Johann Wolfgang von Goethe on dealing with critics.
Against criticism a man can neither protest nor defend himself; he must act in spite of it, and then it will gradually yield to him.
The rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson on dealing with challenges.
In every challenge or even tragedy, there is an opportunity. And if you train yourself to look for the opportunity, you will be able to take control of the situation and even turn it into a positive or if it can't be turned into something good, at least something good could come out of it.
Former UK prime minister Winston Churchill on persistence.
Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.
Onward and Upward.