The Workforce Evolution: Preparing for Tomorrow’s Challenges Today
Strategic foresight is key to managing long-term workforce challenges in government
You don’t need me to inform you the workforce is changing. COVID brought about permanent changes to staffing, most notably working from home and flex work schedules. There’s no going back on those two.
But what other changes are coming? It’s a topic that’s top of mind for local government leaders. You may recall these numbers from the April 17 TL;dr from the State of Local Government survey by YouGov.
No one’s got a crystal ball, but strategic foresight helps managers think through and make informed decisions about long-term challenges that don’t have obvious solutions. We turn to Hauson Le to provide insights into the Future of the Workforce, the second installment in our Servant Leaders series.1
In his role as Strategic Foresight Manager for consulting and recruiting firm SGR, Hauson conducts research and training to help local government leaders anticipate significant changes that lie ahead and to influence those changes to achieve long-term success.
The chart below helps explain how foresight works. Let this sink in. It’ll come up again at the end of the post.
The work you’re doing today “fits for purpose,” i.e., gets done what you need to get done given current conditions. A key to foresight is scanning the environment for “weak signals” for glimpses of what could be in the future. What Hauson has done is evaluate the weak signals of today to help leaders get on a path to ensure they’re prepared for the “something new” that will inevitably come for the future workforce.
Where the solid line and dashed line intersect is “where agency hits,” he says. “We have the agency to choose.”
Hauson uses the example of Blockbuster and Netflix to illustrate the concept. There was a time when Blockbuster ruled the video rental business. But Netflix anticipated a future where busy folks would forgo trekking to brick-and-mortar locations in lieu of home delivery — first via snail mail, later via digital means. Today, one is bankrupt, and the other is worth billions.
“This is an example of why we need to challenge our assumptions about the way we think the world works and what happens if we don’t act,” Hauson says. “We need to pay attention to what’s happening around us, because what’s happening around us shapes our environment, and our environment shapes the value of our services and the impact that we can have on our communities. So, if there’s misalignment there, then we are not fit for purpose anymore.”
Hauson took a good, long look at what’s happening around us by examining current workforce trends and picking up on the weak signals within them.
Six Workforce Trends
Trend No. 1 — Workforce Turmoil. Political polarization is driving public hostility toward public servants and their elected leaders. Expectations from citizens are growing. Budgets are getting stretched as many agencies face failing infrastructure, inflation, etc. Many state legislatures have passed preemption laws that limit revenue growth for local governments.
“You have more needs and fewer resources than ever,” Hauson said. “You’re always needing to do more with less.”
Takeaway: Public servants are losing one of the few remaining incentives of the job — serving the public for the greater good. Tighter budgets mean less room for attractive compensation packages … and potentially staff cuts and wage freezes.
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